Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,348$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,171.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(58,171.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,683$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,400.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,400.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,941$ on 2020-06-18

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $301,935$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,848.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294,848.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,373$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,345.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(40,345.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $258,249$ on 2020-06-18

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $245,268$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(6.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,271.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,271.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(8.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,184.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,184.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67,756$ on 2020-06-18

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $238,159$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(5.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,371.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,371.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,514$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,347.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,101$ on 2020-06-18

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,575.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.3)}}\) (asimptote \(65,575.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(704 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,889.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,889.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-18

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $195,272$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(4.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,972.2}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(185,972.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,606$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(6.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,526.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,526.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,655$ on 2020-06-18

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,527$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,783.3}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(46,783.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,097$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,965.0}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,965.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,244$ on 2020-06-18

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,355$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,932.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,932.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,714$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(308 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,661.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,661.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $943$ on 2020-06-18

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Estonia recovered 89%
Italy recovered 79%
Lithuania recovered 75%
Hungary recovered 54%
Belarus recovered 12%

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,977$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(587 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,849.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,849.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $160$ on 2020-06-18

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,784$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(547 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,635.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,635.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(17.4 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(75.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $259$ on 2020-06-18

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,079$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(826 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,981.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,981.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $568$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(90 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{550.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(550.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $947$ on 2020-06-18

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,657$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,621.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(59,621.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $331$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(35.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{379.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 52.8)}}\) (asimptote \(379.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,303$ on 2020-06-18