Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,348$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,171.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(58,171.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,683$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,400.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,400.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,941$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $301,935$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,848.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294,848.2\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $42,373$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,345.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(40,345.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $258,249$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $245,268$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(6.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,271.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,271.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(8.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,184.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,184.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $67,756$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $238,159$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(5.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,371.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,371.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,514$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(7.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,347.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,347.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,101$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,575.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.3)}}\) (asimptote \(65,575.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(704 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,889.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,889.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $195,272$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(4.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,972.2}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(185,972.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,606$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(6.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,526.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,526.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $91,655$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,527$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,783.3}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(46,783.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,097$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,965.0}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,965.0\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,244$ on 2020-06-18
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,355$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,932.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(24,932.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,714$ on 2020-06-18
Best fit exponential: \(308 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,661.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,661.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $943$ on 2020-06-18